LONG DISTANCE TRANSPORT IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY UNDER CONDITIONS OF ENERGY SHORTAGE

FERNVERKEHR IN DER BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND UNTER BEDINGUNGEN EINER ENERGIEVERKNAPPUNG

This extensive study is divided into the presentation of different energy scenarios and alternative investment strategies, particularly for the railways and their effects on the networks and also the effects of an energy shortage and cost increase on long distance passenger and freight traffic in the federal republic. The effect upon the volume of rail transport forms the main subject of the investigation. In the energy scenarios studies are made of cases where crude oil increases at the rate of 1.5% above the general rate of inflation until 1990 and where crude oil rises annually by 10% until 1990. A further alternative resulting from the shortage of energy is seen as the introduction of an international quota system. In the investment plans up to 1990 it is assumed that the construction measures included in the federal transport route plan will be implemented and that in the case of the railways additional work, particularly in marshalling yards, will be undertaken. The model investigations show that the investment measures have only a very slight effect on the volume of rail transport. Also the energy price rises produce only a very modest movement of traffic from road to rail. Only for a few journey-purposes in the case of passenger traffic and for a few groups of goods in freight traffic will there be a change in the choice by transport users. Based on 6 journey purposes for passenger transport and 12 goods groups for freight transport, the effects of the different planning variations are illustrated. Special value is laid upon the close intermeshing of these modified demand forecasts with forecasts produced earlier.

• Corporate Authors:

  Tetzlaff Verlag GmbH

  Havelstrosse 9, Postfach 4006
  D-6100 Darmstadt 1,   Germany 
• Publication Date: 1980

Language

• German

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 153-157
• Serial:
  • INTERNATIONALES VERKEHRSWESEN
  • Volume: 32
  • Issue Number: 3

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Competition; Economic factors; Economics; Energy conservation; Energy resources; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Freight transportation; Long range planning; Mathematical models; Passengers; Planning; Public transit; Railroad transportation; Research reports; Tests; Traffic; Traffic forecasting; Transportation; Transportation modes; Travel demand
• Identifier Terms: Deutsche Bahn; Deutsche Bundesbahn
• Uncontrolled Terms: Energy crisis; Long term
• Geographic Terms: Germany
• ITRD Terms: 263: Economics of transport; 132: Forecast; 6205: Model (not math); 143: Planning; 1173: Rail bound transport; 8559: Research report; 6255: Test; 755: Traffic
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00334451
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 9 1981 12:00AM