Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Risk factor identification is the basis for risk assessment. To quantify the safety risks of unmanned vessels in inland rivers, through analysis of previous studies, the safety risk impact factor framework of unmanned vessels in inland rivers is established based on three aspects: the ship aspect, the environmental aspect, and the management and control aspect. Relying on Yangtze River, a fuzzy Bayesian network of the sailing safety risk of unmanned ships in inland rivers is constructed. The proposed safety risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. Based on the fuzzy set theory, historical data, and expert judgments and on previous works are used to estimate the base value (prior values) of various risk factors. The case study assessed the safety risk probabilities of unmanned vessels in Yangtze River. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of safety risk is identified, and suggests a dominant factor in risk causation. The research results can provide effective information for analyzing the current safety status for navigation systems of unmanned ships in inland rivers. The estimated safety risk provides early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to enhance the overall safety of shipping operations.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/4057195
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/5121625
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2019 Xiuxia Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
• Authors:
  • Zhang, Xiuxia
  • Zhang, Qingnian
  • Yang, Jie
  • Cong, Zhe
  • Luo, Jing
  • Chen, Huanwan
• Publication Date: 2019

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Serial:
  • Journal of Advanced Transportation
  • Volume: 2019
  • Issue Number: Article ID 4057195
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
  • ISSN: 0197-6729
  • EISSN: 2042-3195
  • Serial URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)2042-3195
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Autonomous vehicles; Inland waterways vessels; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Ship pilotage; Technological innovations
• Geographic Terms: Yangtze River Delta
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01729582
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 29 2020 2:50PM