CAR-OWNERSHIP FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN GREAT BRITAIN

The prospect of continuing changes in the relative prices of different energy sources and of energy as a whole with respect to the general price level has heightened interest in the forecasting of car ownership and use. In Great Britain, two main schools of thought exist concerning aggregate forecasting techniques. The longer-established of these uses straightforward projections from a logistic curve of car ownership per capita calibrated mainly on the basis of national-level time-series data. This technique, however, has lately been subject to increasing criticism. As a result, a second approach, closer to recent American work and based largely on cross-sectional calibration, has now emerged and is increasingly finding favor in government circles. The developments that have taken place in Great Britain in national-level forecasting techniques are described and assessed. Then recent advances in local-level forecasting are described and particular reference is made to a detailed study of 10,000 households in the West Yorkshire conurbation. Special emphasis is placed on the role of family structure and employment status in influencing car ownership and also on the importance of accessibility to facilities by public transport. In the final section, those areas in which further work is particularly needed and the importance of intrahousehold interaction and the relations among accessibility, public transport provision, multicar ownership, and energy prices are discussed.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 11-16
  • Monograph Title: Travel demand models: application, limitations and quantitative methods
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00334189
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309031192
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1981 12:00AM