FORECASTS OF AVIATION FUEL CONSUMPTION IN VIRGINIA

Aviation fuel shortages and their impact on airline services and fuel-tax revenues have encouraged transporters, suppliers, and state agencies to look more closely at future aviation fuel consumption. This paper, the work for which was sponsored by the Virginia Division of Motor Vehicles, determines forecasts for aviation fuel consumption in Virginia under various socioeconomic and airline-policy conditions. The forecasting method is an econometric model that consists of 17 basic components; the major components are population and economy. The state population and economic conditions are considered the major forces that affect travel behavior, airline service, and, in turn, aviation fuel consumption. The model clearly distinguishes between operations of air carriers and of general aviation. General aviation local operations and their itinerant piston-powered operations are considered to consume only aviation gasoline, whereas the remaining aviation operations consume jet fuel. A separate model was developed for each air-carrier airport, whereas an aggregated state model was built for general aviation operations. The scenarios tested include high gasoline prices, rising consumer price index for all goods, high air fares, improved fuel-efficient aircraft, and many other factors. The results show that aviation fuel consumption continues to increase but at different rates, which depend on the economic conditions in the state. Airline policies were also found to affect the amount of jet fuel consumption greatly. (Authors)

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1980/768/768-006.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=FORECASTS+OF+AVIATION+FUEL+CONSUMPTION+IN+VIRGINIA&author=A.+Hobeika&author=A.+Boonpuan&author=F.+Tamberrino&publication_year=1980
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on State Role in Air Transport. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Hobeika, Antoine G
  • Boonpuan, A
  • Tamberrino, F
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 29-36
• Monograph Title: Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 768
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Airports; Aviation; Cost indexes; Fares; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Impacts; Level of service; Transportation policy
• Identifier Terms: Consumer Price Index
• Geographic Terms: Virginia
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Energy; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Terminals and Facilities; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00331266
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309031125
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 28 1981 12:00AM