ASSESSING THE SAFETY AND RISK OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS: RISK ESTIMATION FROM RARE EVENTS

To assess the safety and risk of current and proposed air traffic control route-separation standards, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of occurrence of extremely rare events. Since direct estimates of collision risk from historical data require sample periods that are unacceptably long, alternative methods are necessary. This article describes a probabilistic model for collision risk and its use in the North Atlantic airspace; it includes a discussion of sequential testing designed to determine whether current navigational performance meets a specified target level of safety. (Authors)

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: pp 24-28
  • Monograph Title: Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00331265
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309031125
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1981 12:00AM