This paper examines the nature of the problem that faces air travelers confronted with choosing from among a variety of air fares, each associated with different service characteristics, and the problem of forecasting these decisions. A theoretical framework is developed that views the problem at the level of the individual traveler; the ticket-type choice is expressed in terms of the individual's socioeconomic characteristics, the characteristics of the trip in question, and the level of service associated with each available alternative. Logit models are suggested as the preferable functional form on the basis of theoretical and computational grounds, and the properties of logit models are briefly described. A pilot application of the method is presented for a two-alternative situation (full fare versus standby) by using a small sample of interview data collected from departing passengers at Boston's Logan Airport. A calibrated model is presented that demonstrates a statistically significant relationship between the ticket-type choice and the fare, fare differential, trip purpose, automobile ownership (as a proxy for income), and the passenger's perception of the delays that may be expected if flying standby. This application merely demonstrates a method and could easily be improved by using the airlines' onboard surveys for estimation. (Author)

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 20-24
  • Monograph Title: Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00331264
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309031125
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1981 12:00AM