Early attempts at modeling transit use in the Orlando, Florida, Urban Area Transportation Study (OUATS) assumed that the rather low use of the area's inadequate transit system would continue into the future. Direct generation of modal split and the forecast of automobile person trips locked the area into forecasts of low transit use both in the original study in 1965 and in the first update of OUATS in 1970. In 1973, this shortcoming in the travel-forecasting procedures used in the area was corrected. A mode-share model was developed from expressions found in the Minneapolis area and calibrated to conditions in the Orlando area determined through a transit-attitude survey conducted in 1973. The questionnaire used in this survey was designed to provide input into a mode-share model so that future patronage of alternative transit systems could be determined. In 1978, another survey was accomplished as a part of an update to OUATS. This survey was designed to duplicate the earlier survey to the maximum extent possible. This duplication included attempting to question the exact respondent reached in 1973. The intent of the duplication was to allow for a validation of the modal-split relationships developed from the original survey. Although this validation is important, particularly to the Orlando area, there are other questions to which these results can be applied. A basic assumption of the urban transportation planning process is the stability of trip characteristics over time. Other studies have shown mixed results, and generally these studies are limited to trip-generation expressions. The results in the Orlando area indicate that those relationships that might be used in modeling mode use do remain stable over time, at least for the purposes of short-range planning (three to five years). This is particularly significant when the time frame of the two studies in Orlando is considered. The results of the two surveys also imply that there is stability over time in mode-choice attitudes, even over a period when significant changes occurred in socioeconomic factors generally related to mode choice. These results would therefore also tend to support similar stability in other areas over longer periods of time. This could be particularly important to other areas that might be considering updating existing mode-choice surveys. (Author)

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: pp 56-58
  • Monograph Title: Public Transportation Planning
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00331060
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309031036
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1982 12:00AM