VALUE OF URBAN TRANSIT OPERATING-COST MODELS AS FORECASTING TOOLS

Eight urban transit operating-cost models were reviewed to determine their value as forecasting tools. The models were found to have structural problems. In the average-daily-cost model and annual-cost model, the association inputs with outputs was assumed to have a strong positive correlation. Case-study transit system data were used to test these relationships. The findings indicate that these two models were not reliable because strong positive correlations existed in too few of the expected relationships. The eight models were not designed to include variables that measure the influence of institutional factors on operating costs. The necessity to subsidize transit operations has led to increasing involvement of the public sector in transit operating decisions. Planners are advised to refrain from relying totally on any of the eight models for estimation of operating costs. Such additional techniques should be considered as developing probabilities of changes in cost categories and generating alternate scenarios of operating conditions. (Author)

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1980/761/761-008.pdf
• Summary URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=VALUE+OF+URBAN+TRANSIT+OPERATING-COST+MODELS+AS+FORECASTING+TOOLS&author=J.+Ortner&publication_year=1980
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309031036
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Public Transportation Planning and Development.
• Authors:
  • Ortner, James D
• Conference:
  • 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1980-1-21 to 1980-1-25
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 40-47
• Monograph Title: Public Transportation Planning
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 761
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Case studies; Forecasting; Institutional issues; Mathematical models; Operating costs; Subsidies; Urban transportation
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00331056
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309031036
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 28 1982 12:00AM