FORECASTING EQUILIBRIUM MOTOR VEHICLE HOLDINGS BY MEANS OF DISAGGREGATE MODELS

This paper reports on the development of a methodology to forecast the fuel efficiency of household motor vehicle holdings in the United States. Forecasts are made by using a new partial equilibrium model of the operation of the motor vehicle market. In a break with the prevailing aggregate stock-adjustment approach, the approach described here incorporates household-level discrete choice models to explain vehicle holdings and scrap-page decisions. Given assumptions on the design and prices of future new vehicles and fuel prices, the behavior of a demographically weighted sample of households is simulated and equilibrium conditions for the vehicle market are solved each year in the forecast period. The paper presents predictions of household vehicle holdings, new-vehicle sales, used-vehicle scrappage, and the resulting average vehicle fuel efficiencies under two future scenarios. (Authors)

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1980/764/764-015.pdf
• Summary URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=FORECASTING+EQUILIBRIUM+MOTOR+VEHICLE+HOLDINGS+BY+MEANS+OF+DISAGGREGATE+MODELS&author=C.+Manski&author=L.+Sherman&publication_year=1980
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Manski, Charles F
  • Sherman, Leonard
• Conference:
  • 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1980-1-21 to 1980-1-25
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 96-103
• Monograph Title: Transportation Energy: Data, Forecasting, Policy, and Models
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 764
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Choice models; Disaggregate analysis; Equilibrium (Mechanics); Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Households; Motor vehicles; Sales; Scrap; Used vehicle industry
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
• Subject Areas: Energy; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Vehicles and Equipment; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00331036
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309031079
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jun 12 1981 12:00AM