REVIEW OF ANALYTICAL MODELS OF GASOLINE DEMAND DURING AN ENERGY EMERGENCY

This paper provides a framework for evaluating various proposals for reducing the costs of queueing for gasoline during energy shortages. Two types of proposals have been offered to address the problem: queue-management techniques, such as minimum or maximum purchase requirements, and demand-management techniques, such as improved transit service or bans on weekend sales of gasoline. The paper starts with the presumption that three bodies of literature are relevant to the problem: (a) literature on wartime hoarding and speculative demand, (b) literature on congestion pricing, and (c) literature on inventory management and transport cost trade-offs. Which of these bodies of literature is the dominant determinant of public behavior during gasoline shortages to a large degree determines the success of any proposed policy recommendation. For example, if the congestion cost imposed by waiting in line is necessary to equilibrate the total supply and demand for gasoline, queue-management techniques will be self-defeating, because reduced congestion costs only encourage more demand and reestablishment of the equilibrium. If speculative demand is a large factor in explaining shortages, controls on purchase size could reduce total demand, free up inventories in tanks for consumption, and reduce the length of queues. If the inventory cost-transport cost model prevails, lengthy queues will discourage speculative demand and lead to recommendations for demand management such as carpooling incentives and improved transit service. Without an adequate time-series data base to monitor the public's behavior during a crisis, a definitive policy recommendation is not possible and the debate will not be resolved. Based on the present state of knowledge, a combination of minimum purchase requirement and demand suppression (especially of the "carrot" variety through improved transit service and carpooling) is recommended. Even-odd plans do not have a sufficiently plausible conceptual rationale to make it likely that they will improve queueing costs materially. (Author)

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Supplemental Notes:
- Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Authors:
- Tye, William B
Conference:
- 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
- Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
- Date: 1980-1-21 to 1980-1-25
Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

Media Type: Print
Features: References;
Pagination: pp 49-53
Monograph Title: Transportation Energy: Data, Forecasting, Policy, and Models
Serial:
- Transportation Research Record
- Issue Number: 764
- Publisher: Transportation Research Board
- ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

TRT Terms: Costs; Demand; Energy resources; Evaluation; Gasoline; Inventory; Mathematical models; Minimization; Pricing; Public transit; Purchasing; Queuing; Reviews; Supply; Traffic congestion
Uncontrolled Terms: Congestion; Energy crisis; Models; Supply and demand
Old TRIS Terms: Minima
Subject Areas: Energy; Finance; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

Accession Number: 00331030
Record Type: Publication
ISBN: 0309031079
Files: TRIS, TRB
Created Date: Jun 12 1996 12:00AM