LONG-RANGE FORECASTS OF TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NEW YORK STATE

This paper summarizes the methods used by the New York State Department of Transportation to prepare long-range baseline forecasts of energy use in each of the subsectors of the transportation sector in New York. By use of a variety of techniques that relate energy to the economy, fuel price and supply, and vehicle efficiency, five-year forecasts to 1995 are prepared for trucks, passenger cars, aviation, rail, vessel, and transit modes. Within each group, separate forecasts are made for relevant segments (e.g., passenger rail). Results show that in 1995 total transportation energy in New York will expand by 13 percent from its 1976 level. Growth in air passengers of 108 percent, intercity rail of 10 percent, transit of 9 percent, and light truck of 59 percent will be offset by declines in passenger car fuel use of 24 percent. The latter are caused primarily by increasing vehicle efficiency. Gasoline use is projected to fall by 8 percent over the period; use of most other products will increase. The report concludes that growth will be moderate, generally even, tied to the New York economy, and highly dependent on increases in the efficiency of personal cars. (Authors)

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 7-16
  • Monograph Title: Transportation energy: data, forecasting, policy and models
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00331023
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309031079
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jun 12 1982 12:00AM