UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONTEXT OF HIGHWAY APPRAISAL

Transport planning is based on traffic forecasts which are subject to great uncertainties. These uncertainties have generally been ignored or, at least, not explicitly included in the planning process. This paper describes the principles behind the estimation of the uncertainty (or range of error) of the forecasts of a traffic model and discusses the means by which this information can be absorbed into the decision-making in transport planning projects. These principles have been applied to the appraisal of a British highway project and throughout the paper reference is made to this project in order to illustrate the results of the practical application of an explicit treatment of uncertainty. It is believed that this approach can and should be developed for application in most areas of transport planning, leading inevitably to an improvement in the quality of the decisions taken. (Author/TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00494488
• Corporate Authors:

  Elsevier

  Radarweg 29
  Amsterdam,   Netherlands  1043 NX
• Authors:
  • Ashley, D J
• Publication Date: 1980-10

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 249-267
• Serial:
  • Transportation (Netherlands)
  • Volume: 9
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers
  • ISSN: 0049-4488

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Errors; Forecasting; Highway planning; Highways; Mathematical models; Planning; Traffic; Traffic forecasting; Transportation; Transportation planning; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transportation models
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 2248: Decision process; 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 2755: Highway; 6473: Mathematical model; 143: Planning; 755: Traffic; 1155: Transport; 8119: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00330850
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-030 990
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 15 1981 12:00AM