TRAFFIC FORECASTING: A COMPLICATED FORM OF CRYSTAL-BALL GAZING

The basis of the Department of Transport's national road traffic forecasts is economic or "gdp" growth. The forecasts, based on an array of statistical work, represent future estimated UK traffic growth towards the year 2010 and are likely to find application in strategic and policy decisions. Following the series of dtp national traffic forecasts, the Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment was established in 1976 to review the dtp method of appraising trunk road schemes and traffic forecasting. One of the recommendations was that instead of the "extrapolatory" model then used, forecasts should be based on "causal" models. The "interim memorandum" issued in 1978 offered a range of car traffic forecasts based partly on the previous exploratory model and partly on a causal model. With recent forecasts of gdp rising at 20-50% by the year 2000 it is suggested that a range of forecasts based on low and high growth should be applied to a range of possible design options. Criteria are then required to determine which option should be chosen taking account of economic and environmental factors. (TRRL)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    City Press Limited

    Fairfax House
    Colchester, Essex CO1 1RJ,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Tuckwell, B
  • Publication Date: 1980-9-10

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00330793
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 15 1981 12:00AM