A NEW SYSTEM FOR CAR OWNERSHIP FORECASTS

NEUES VERFAHREN FUER PKW-MOTORISIERUNGS-PROGNOSEN

With trend-forecast methods and model prediction methods the development of the number of vehicles can only be forecast for relatively short periods of time. A series of methods used in different countries is given. Previously used methods and models do not take into account the fact that the vehicle ownership rates also remain at a level below saturation or, as a result of exceptional circumstances, even sink below it. The new method recommended considers separately de-licensing of cars and the licensing of new ones. From this division and subsequent integration, carrying out the forecast becomes more straightforward. An indication is given of how one evaluates from this division the total number of de-licensed cars, starting with the number of new licenses issued yearly, during a particular time period and how, using the predicted number of new licenses, the number of private cars can be calculated by area-evaluation. (TRRL)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Kirschbaum Verlag

    Siegfriedstrasse 28
    Bonn,   Germany  D-53179
  • Authors:
    • Waissi, G
  • Publication Date: 1979-5

Language

  • German

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: p. 151-154
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00330289
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: May 21 1981 12:00AM