The workshop came to several conclusions about future trends in energy and fuel availability which would influence demand for air travel to and from North America. World energy demand in general is expected to increase less rapidly than in the past due to increased prices, conservation, and energy efficiency and slower economic growth rates. Use of oil (currently half of world energy demand) will level off and decline due to increased use of other energy sources (e.g. coal, hydroelectricity, nuclear power, solar power, synthetic fuels). In the short term, aviation fuel supplies will remain tight; although the situation could be eased somewhat by streamlining airline operations. Because fuel now takes up a large share of total airline costs, fares will be more sensitive to further fuel cost increase; although improved fuel efficiency may keep the rate of fare increase below that of the cost of fuel. Barring a serious situation developing in the Middle East, fuel supplies will be sufficient to permit continued growth of air transport of between 6 and 9 percent. Research is needed on specification for synthetic commercial aviation fuel and what energy policies are necessary to produce these synthetic fuels.

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    • Presented at a Workshop held at the 59th TRB Annual Meeting, 14-15 January 1980. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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  • Publication Date: 1980-8

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  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 3-6
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  • Accession Number: 00330229
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Apr 15 1981 12:00AM