AN INTERACTIVE STRATEGIC MODEL OF TRANSPORT COSTS AND METROPOLITAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

This paper presents an exploratory model of the population redistribution process in metropolitan areas. A set of ten differential equations developed from logistic growth theory describes the dispersal of population from an urban area into two encompassing concentric zones. These outward flows give rise to changes in the commuting flows by mode as well as changes in the modal mix of journey-to-work trips within the urban area. The model is calibrated for greater London and the south-east standard region of England between 61 and 1976, and various possible pricing scenarios are tested to examine the population trajectories up to 1991. The results illustrate the feasibility of dynamic process-descriptive models in urban analysis, but also suggest an integrated programme of research and model-building as part of this development. (a) (TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0308518X
• Corporate Authors:

  Pion Limited

  207 Brondesburg Park
  London NW2 5JN,   England 
• Authors:
  • Varaprasad, N
• Publication Date: 1980-9

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 1009-34
• Serial:
  • Environment and Planning A
  • Volume: 12
  • Issue Number: 9
  • Publisher: Pion Limited
  • ISSN: 0308-518X
  • EISSN: 1472-3409
  • Serial URL: http://www.envplan.com/A.html

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calibration; Computer graphics; Costs; Differential equations; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Metropolitan areas; Modal split; Motion; Physical distribution; Population; Population movements; Traffic flow; Transportation; Urban areas; Work trips
• Uncontrolled Terms: Interactive graphics
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 6171: Calibration; 224: Cost; 9016: Distribution (gen); 132: Forecast; 621: Journey to work; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 5483: Movement; 335: Population; 671: Traffic flow; 1155: Transport; 8119: United Kingdom; 313: Urban area
• Subject Areas: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Transportation (General); I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00329677
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: May 21 1982 12:00AM