AN INTERACTIVE STRATEGIC MODEL OF TRANSPORT COSTS AND METROPOLITAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

This paper presents an exploratory model of the population redistribution process in metropolitan areas. A set of ten differential equations developed from logistic growth theory describes the dispersal of population from an urban area into two encompassing concentric zones. These outward flows give rise to changes in the commuting flows by mode as well as changes in the modal mix of journey-to-work trips within the urban area. The model is calibrated for greater London and the south-east standard region of England between 61 and 1976, and various possible pricing scenarios are tested to examine the population trajectories up to 1991. The results illustrate the feasibility of dynamic process-descriptive models in urban analysis, but also suggest an integrated programme of research and model-building as part of this development. (a) (TRRL)

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Pion Limited

    207 Brondesburg Park
    London NW2 5JN,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Varaprasad, N
  • Publication Date: 1980-9

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  • Accession Number: 00329677
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: May 21 1982 12:00AM