Development of a Signalized Intersection Safety Evaluation Model using Back-propagation Algorithm

The purpose of this study is to develop a highly-reliable safety-prediction model for signalized intersections using a BPA model, targeting signalized intersections in Gwangju Metropolitan City, where traffic congestion and traffic accidents occur frequently, to draw effective conclusions through implementation of the following procedures. First, the authors conducted a correlation coefficient analysis between traffic accidents at signalized intersections and traffic conflict, and confirmed that traffic accident rank and traffic conflict rank are statistically significant. This will be utilized in developing a linear regression model, where traffic conflict is an explanatory variable and traffic accidents are a dependent variable, as traffic conflict can be used as a variable for signalized intersection safety. Second, a traffic accident prediction model is developed through a multiple regression analysis by selecting traffic volume and the difference of the number of entry and exit lanes as an explanatory variable of traffic accidents. Third, a signalized intersection safety-prediction model is developed using a BPA model, by selecting traffic volume and geometric structure elements of roads as an explanatory variable, and traffic conflict as a dependent variable of the model. Finally, an adaptability analysis is conducted on traffic accident prediction value via the root mean square error, in accordance with traffic accident measurement value, a multiple regression model, and a BPA model, and the result is as follows. As a result of goodness of fit analysis of a multiple regression model and a BPA model using the RMSE method by comparing accident prediction value in accordance with a multiple regression model and a BPA model, a BPA model demonstrated excellent reliability and accuracy to a multiple regression model.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; Illustrations; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 13p
  • Monograph Title: Proceedings of the 25th World Road Congress - Seoul 2015: Roads and Mobility - Creating New Value from Transport

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01715859
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9782840604235
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 5 2019 4:18PM