A Sensitivity Analysis of Freight Transport Forecasts for the Netherlands

This article describes a sensitivity analysis study of freight transport forecasts for the Netherlands. The authors offer an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. The model uses scenarios developed recently by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The scenarios describe two base cases (high and low) which use a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The authors then explore the freight forecasts using five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam. They conclude that the sensitivity analysis provides more insight regarding each scenario assumption and can also be useful in estimating freight transport demand.

  • Availability:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Special issue on European Transport Conference 2017.
  • Authors:
    • De Bok, Michiel
    • Wesseling, Bart
    • Kiel, Jan
    • Miete, Onno
    • Francke, Jan
  • Publication Date: 2018-12

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01708068
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 18 2019 3:28PM