Using Conditional Probabilities to Understand “Human Error” in Military Aviation Mishaps

The Department of Defense Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (DoD HFACS) is the standardized taxonomy used by the services to classify human error identified in mishaps and hazards. DoD HFACS encourages safety investigators and professionals to examine how higher-level influences (e.g. organizational policy, supervisor ability, and technological environment) can impact performance for the individuals executing the actual work (e.g. aviators flying the aircraft). The current project applied the well- known conditional probability formula of Bayes’ Theorem to better understand how the higher-level influences shape the specific types of performance deviations experienced by individuals involved in aviation mishaps.


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  • Accession Number: 01708818
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 24 2019 5:17PM