TESTING THE THEORETICAL ACCURACY OF TRAVEL CHOICE MODELS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

In this paper micro-travel demand model structures are discussed using a geometric interpretation of random utility theory, and the possibility of invoking transformations on the general probit model is examined. Monte Carlo simulation methods are then used to investigate some aspects of the trade-off between the generality and accuracy of correlated structures (the cross-correlated logit model in particular) and the greater ease with which less consistent structures may be implemented. In this way, the theoretical accuracy of the multinomial logit model is assessed. It is concluded that where the general probit model is too complex to implement, the practice of comparing the multinomial logit model with alternative hierarchical logit structures is unlikely to lead to significant errors in forecasting. (TRRL)

• Corporate Authors:

  University of Leeds

  School of Geography, Woodhouse Lane
  Leeds, West Yorkshire  England  LS2 9JT
• Authors:
  • Ortuzar, J D
• Publication Date: 1979-11

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 49 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Errors; Forecasting; Logits; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo method; Probits; Simulation; Travel; Travel demand
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 698: Journey; 6473: Mathematical model; 9103: Simulation
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00325645
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: Working Paper 125 Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 28 1981 12:00AM