TRANSPORT NETWORK PLANNING UNDER IGNORANCE

Two sources of doubt face the decision maker - the uncertainty of the future and the way people react to decisions. To determine how rational transport environment decisions can be made, accepting the true state of ignorance, the authors consider traditional approaches under certain and uncertain circumstances. A general model is derived for the transport investment problem. The solution requires information on the demand for movement, but once this is obtained, the environment programme objective can be written to ensure the socio-economic justification of the decision. A lesser presumption is that probabilities can be attached to the future values of the appropriate variables, and the means of the expected values can be used. A Bayesian approach to problems is adopted when there is increased uncertainty about its future. However, some attitudes may change with time and alter the significance of the choice. Methods of making the suggested plan more robust are discussed. (TRRL)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    GORDON AND BREACH SCIENCE PUB.

    AMSTERDAM:
    ,    
  • Authors:
    • O'Sullivan, P
    • Holtzclaw, G
  • Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00323049
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: May 21 1981 12:00AM