CHOICE MODEL CALIBRATED ON CURRENT BEHAVIOUR PREDICTS PUBLIC RESPONSE TO NEW POLICIES

The standard approach to predicting public response to possible changes in transportation policy is to describe the changed environmental conditions in a scenario and ask individuals what their choice would be. These stated intentions tend to mislead policy makers in the absolute sense because of the varying degrees of overestimation. Sophisticated attribute choice models which are calibrated in terms of the stated intentions also tend to be weak predictors of actual public response to new policies. Empirical research is presented in which a logit model that is calibrated using the attribute ratings of the alternatives under the new policy conditions described in the scenario in relation to current behavior rather than stated intentions provides highly accurate predictions of the actual ppublic r eaction to neew policies. (a) (TRRL)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Pergamon Press, Incorporated

    Headington Hill Hall
    Oxford OX30BW,    
  • Authors:
    • Gensch, D H
  • Publication Date: 1980-4

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00322494
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 15 1981 12:00AM