FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal Years 2019-2039

Fundamentally, over the medium and long term, aviation demand is driven by economic activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for aviation to grow over the long run. The 2019 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 1.8 percent per year. The uptick in passenger growth since 2014 will continue into 2019 driven by generally positive economic conditions in the U.S. and the world. System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.2 percent a year between 2019 and 2039. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 1.9 percent a year while International RPMs are forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.0 percent a year. System capacity as measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is growing, especially in the regional jet market, where the authors expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2030, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft. The FAA expects U.S. carrier profitability to remain steady or increase as solid demand fed by a stable economy offsets rising energy and labor costs. Over the long term, the authors see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. and global economy. This document also addresses commercial space, trends in unmanned aircraft systems, general aviation, and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) operations.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: 107p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01705753
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
  • Created Date: May 2 2019 12:07PM