QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING ECONOMIC GROWTH AT NONURBAN, LIMITED-ACCESS HIGHWAY INTERCHANGES

A quantitative modeling technique for estimating the economic development that is likely to occur at a given nonurban interchange site on the interstate highway system is described. It was important that the model be easily implemented by using secondary data on economic, demographic, geographic, and other characteristics. A sample of 128 nonurban Pennsylvania interchanges was selected. Problems in the quantification of variables and restrictions imposed by the lack of data for certain variables were discussed. Simple, multiple, and stepwise linear regressions were useful in identifying promising variables for the modeling technique. The structural design of the model was formulated by using 15 exogenous variables that define the economic, demographic, geographic, and traffic environment and the following five endogenous varibles: service stations, restaurant seats, motel rooms, industrial developments, and other commercial developments. The forecasting model consisted of a set of simultaneous linear equations. The simultaneous-equation model usually gives better estimates than single-equation models. A two- stage least-squares technique was used to estimate the parameters of the model. All equations of the model were statistically significant. The model can be a useful tool in helping planners to predict land use changes at existing or proposed nonurban interchange sites. When applying it to a specifc interchange, the user is cautioned to observe the total environmental setting for peculiar or unique characteristics. (Author)

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Social, Economic, and Environmental Factors of Transportation.
• Authors:
  • Twark, Richard D
  • Eyerly, Raymond W
  • Nassi, Richard B
• Conference:
  • 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1980-1-21 to 1980-1-25
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 12-19
• Monograph Title: Economic and social aspects of transportation
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 747
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Economic development; Estimating; Forecasting; Industries; Interchanges; Linear regression analysis; Mathematical models; Rural areas; Trade
• Identifier Terms: Interstate Highway System
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00319377
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309030560
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 27 1980 12:00AM