Incorporating risk factors in transport project economic evaluations

Project economic viability is a key consideration in funding transport infrastructure. The decision making to date has often been relying on the point estimate of the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), or some other economic criterion, which is underpinned by a number and range of input variables and assumptions. These input variables usually have a degree of variance which could lead to biased BCR estimates and thus represents a risk to the project economic viability. This paper introduces a probabilistic approach to quantify and incorporate risk factors into the BCR estimate. Building on the existing literature, this research focuses on the identification key risk factors in transport project economic appraisals and the approach to determining the probability distributions of risk factors using a case study.

• Record URL:
  https://atrf.info/papers/2018/index.aspx
• Authors:
  • Tsai, P
  • Rosati, L
  • Wilson, C
• Conference:
  • Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 40th, 2018, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
• Publication Date: 2018-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 12p
• Monograph Title: 40th Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), Darwin, October 30th - November 1st, 2018

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Benefit cost analysis; Case studies; Decision making; Economics; Evaluation; Probability; Project management; Risk assessment
• ATRI Terms: Case study; Cost benefit analysis; Decision process; Probability; Project evaluation; Risk assessment; Transport economics
• Subject Areas: Economics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01696313
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 26 2019 2:40PM