Estimation of transport demand for residential areas according to their location in urbanized areas

The present article is addressing the method of estimation of transport demand for residential areas located both within the city boundary and outside. Residential areas are represented by traditional residential districts as well as low-rise buildings with land plots including gardeners’ non-commercial partnerships (hereinafter referred to as ("GNCP"). The proposed method of transport demand estimation is based upon quantitative characteristics stipulating the aforesaid areas' functioning. The authors analyze the effect of area remoteness from the city center and from the nearest arterial street. It should be noted that different types of territories are characterized by intrinsic factors affecting the transport demand. For instance, attendance of large shopping and recreation centers will depend only on their area size while quantity of visitors in supermarkets and general stores will be influenced by factors like remoteness from city center and from arterial street. This article is addressing empirical dependencies which allow estimating transport demand towards residential areas including also residential areas located within urbanized territories. In the practice of transport computations it is important to perceive occurrence of peak and inter-peak periods on which basis the main computations are being fulfilled; quantitative representation of aforesaid periods may be implemented with the use of diurnal irregularity coefficients representing the percent of territory utilization ratio by hours. Comparison of diurnal irregularity coefficients [based on root mean square error (RMSE) analysis] may (i) give answer to the question about similarity of functioning of GNCP and urban residential area and (ii) help to substantiate the fact of population permanent residing within GNCP territories which fact will, in its turn, stipulate presence of permanent shuttle migrations fulfilled with labor purposes. The authors performed comparative analysis of Individual Transport (IT) intensity on the basis of proposed empirical dependencies with in-situ measurement of IT intensity which demonstrated high degree of convergence. The authors compared diurnal irregularity coefficients of GNCP and high-rise residential area which demonstrated substantial convergence on the basis of RMSE analysis (R²=0.67) which fact, in its turn, demonstrates considerable functional similarity between GNCP and residential areas located within administrative boundaries of the city.


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  • Accession Number: 01692597
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jan 3 2019 3:13PM