Evacuation tour formation behavior during no-notice emergency events

Disastrous events have been drastically increasing both in frequency and destructive capacity over the past few years. While advance-notice events are extensively explored in the literature, not much attention so far has been paid to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of available data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand model which comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and schedule update. Following the introduction of the framework, the authors focus on the tour formation step by first estimating the total number of trips, travel time, and travel distance of the tours in a joint modeling structure and then, determining the type of each intermediate stop. It is found that a broad range of variables including evacuees’ demographic attributes, built-environment factors, and characteristics of the disastrous event affects the evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The results of this study can shed light on the complex evacuation behavior and help responsible agencies to create effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties as a result of such events.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABR30 Standing Committee on Emergency Evacuations.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Transportation Research Board

  • Authors:
    • Golshani, Nima
    • Shabanpour, Ramin
    • Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros)
    • Auld, Joshua
    • Ley, Hubert
  • Conference:
  • Date: 2019


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: 5p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01697968
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 19-00637
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 7 2018 9:42AM