Correlated Grouped Random Parameters Hazard-Based Duration Analysis of Elderly Travel Times

Populations around the world are steadily getting older. Ageing populations portend serious implications for national, regional, and local transportation planners and policy makers. This paper extracts data for the New York metropolitan area from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey to analyze the effects of household, traveler, travel mode, and travel purpose characteristics on elderly trip durations. Specifically, the elderly are divided into two age segments; those identified as young seniors (65 through 74 years of age) and old seniors (75 years of age and older). To account for unobserved heterogeneity in the underlying hazard function and across observations, as well as unobserved effects due to correlation among random parameters, a correlated grouped random parameter hazard-based duration model is employed. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use this statistical modeling framework to analyze travel times. Results suggest that use of correlated grouped random parameters provide a superior statistical fit compared to corresponding models using fixed, random, grouped random parameters, or correlated random parameters. The findings also reveal that the young and old seniors are not a homogeneous group, and that the underlying distribution characterizing the hazard function for each age group is different. To that end, separate models are estimated for young and old seniors. Furthermore, the study reveals apparent disparities in travel times associated with birth nationality, ethnicity, and education level.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB60 Standing Committee on Safe Mobility of Older Persons.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Transportation Research Board

  • Authors:
    • Jordan, Gary A
    • Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch
    • Peeta, Srinivas
    • Somenahalli, Sekhar
    • Rogerson, Peter A
  • Conference:
  • Date: 2019


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 12p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01697493
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 19-06092
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 7 2018 9:29AM