A Model to Optimize Air Travel Passenger Screening for Global Outbreak Response and Mitigation

The introduction and spread of emerging infectious diseases is increasing in both prevalence and scale. Whether naturally, accidentally or maliciously introduced, the substantial uncertainty surrounding the emergence of novel viruses, specifically where they may come from and how they will spread, demands robust and quantifiably validated outbreak control policies that can be implemented in real time. This work proposes an ensemble of new control strategies for mitigating infectious disease pandemics that spread through human contact. The strategies are defined within a novel mathematical modeling framework that accounts for both the outbreak dynamics and control decisions. The proposed control mechanism evaluated in this work is air-travel passenger screening, however the modelling framework is applicable to alternative control mechanisms. Each strategy varies in its selection procedure of where and how much screening is assigned, with all strategies constrained by a pre-determined monetary budget. The authors evaluate each control strategy using a meta-population stochastic simulation model, and compare the strategies based on their effectiveness of reducing the outbreak size and spread. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate the robustness of the strategies across a range of outbreak scenarios, disease parameters, and modelling assumptions. Finally, a case study is presented for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results highlight the importance of strategically allocating outbreak control resources, and identify the most robust border control policies that can be implemented in the early stages of an outbreak.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AV090 Standing Committee on Aviation Security and Emergency Management.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Zlojutro, Aleksa
  • Rey, David
  • Gardner, Lauren
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2019-1-13 to 2019-1-17
• Date: 2019

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 5p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Airports; Budgeting; Case studies; Communicable diseases; Emergency management; Mathematical models; Optimization; Passenger screening; Resource allocation; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01697484
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 19-05310
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 1 2019 3:51PM