Four alternative-futures scenarios (high and moderate growth, changing values, depression, and recovery) were developed, including key assumptions about economic, demographic, and social conditions, about resource availability. These scenarios are used to provide a context for projecting transportation energy demand, and to provide framework for other kinds of long-range studies of transportation energy use and related factors. Energy-demand projections, from the present through the year 2025, were made for each major mode of transportation - automobiles and personal trucks, buses, railroads, commercial trucks, aviation, and water transportation. A set of long-range scenarios and baseline projections of transportation energy demand consistent with each scenario was provided. These baselines are intended to serve as starting points for future analyses of various transportation energy-conservation strategies. A common alternative-futures scenario framework for future work is provided. The scenarios developed can be elaborated for closer study of different projections of regional-transportation energy use; they can serve as the bases for inputs to more-elaborate forecasting models; or they can serve as starting points for developing other scenarios of the future.

  • Corporate Authors:

    SRI International

    333 Ravenswood Avenue
    Menlo Park, CA  United States  94025-3493
  • Publication Date: 1978-7

Media Info

  • Pagination: 87 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00322945
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Energy Research Abstracts
  • Contract Numbers: AT03-76CS50115
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 30 1980 12:00AM