TRANSPORTATION ENERGY DEMAND IN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
Four alternative-futures scenarios (high and moderate growth, changing values, depression, and recovery) were developed, including key assumptions about economic, demographic, and social conditions, about resource availability. These scenarios are used to provide a context for projecting transportation energy demand, and to provide framework for other kinds of long-range studies of transportation energy use and related factors. Energy-demand projections, from the present through the year 2025, were made for each major mode of transportation - automobiles and personal trucks, buses, railroads, commercial trucks, aviation, and water transportation. A set of long-range scenarios and baseline projections of transportation energy demand consistent with each scenario was provided. These baselines are intended to serve as starting points for future analyses of various transportation energy-conservation strategies. A common alternative-futures scenario framework for future work is provided. The scenarios developed can be elaborated for closer study of different projections of regional-transportation energy use; they can serve as the bases for inputs to more-elaborate forecasting models; or they can serve as starting points for developing other scenarios of the future.
SRI International333 Ravenswood Avenue
Menlo Park, CA United States 94025-3493
- Publication Date: 1978-7
- Pagination: 87 p.
- TRT Terms: Competition; Demand; Energy; Energy conservation; Energy consumption; Forecasting; Long range planning; Mathematical models; Modal split; Transportation modes; Transportation planning
- Uncontrolled Terms: Long term
- Old TRIS Terms: Energy demand; Energy forecasts; Energy intensiveness
- Subject Areas: Energy; Environment; Marine Transportation; Railroads;
- Accession Number: 00322945
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Energy Research Abstracts
- Contract Numbers: AT03-76CS50115
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Dec 30 1980 12:00AM