ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR WORKS BUS SERVICES

A travel-to-work survey of non-industrial workers at Aere Harwell is reported. The response rate was about 90 per cent. Forty-one per cent of respondents used works bus while 48 per cent used a car mode. Journeys were generally between 1 and 22 kilometres. The data collected were used to calibrate a demand model to estimate the probability of works bus use. The factors found to be most significant were distance to work, access distance to a works bus route, car availability and fare per kilometre. The model estimated total works bus patronage to within 1 1/2 per cent. On a route and stop basis the mean errors of estimation were 13 and 28 per cent respectively. The forecast fare elasticity was -0.3. To demonstrate the capability of the model as a planning tool it was used to calculate the numbers of workers needed in a works bus catchment area to ensure break-even operation. It was shown, for example, that for an average direct distance to work of 5 kilometres about 165 low- or 350 high-car-availability workers were needed within 1 1/2 kilometres of a works bus stop, and the fare was 3-4 pence per direct journey kilometre. For a 20 kilometre distance the corresponding figures were 50, 65 and 2 pence per direct journey kilometre respectively.(a) (TRRL)

• Corporate Authors:

  Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)

  Wokingham, Berkshire  United Kingdom 
• Authors:
  • Hale, DMJ
  • Jackson, R L
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accessibility; Automobiles; Bus transit; Buses; Data collection; Demand; Fares; Forecasting; Length; Location; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Questionnaires; Routes; Tariffs; Transportation; Transportation planning; Travel; Travel demand; Urban transportation; Work trips
• Uncontrolled Terms: Use
• Old TRIS Terms: Bus transportation (Intracity)
• ITRD Terms: 9139: Accessibility; 1272: Bus; 1243: Car; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 9147: Interview; 698: Journey; 621: Journey to work; 6488: Length; 9061: Location; 6473: Mathematical model; 241: Tariff; 1155: Transport; 9084: Use; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00322437
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: SR553 Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: May 21 1982 12:00AM