ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR WORKS BUS SERVICES

A travel-to-work survey of non-industrial workers at Aere Harwell is reported. The response rate was about 90 per cent. Forty-one per cent of respondents used works bus while 48 per cent used a car mode. Journeys were generally between 1 and 22 kilometres. The data collected were used to calibrate a demand model to estimate the probability of works bus use. The factors found to be most significant were distance to work, access distance to a works bus route, car availability and fare per kilometre. The model estimated total works bus patronage to within 1 1/2 per cent. On a route and stop basis the mean errors of estimation were 13 and 28 per cent respectively. The forecast fare elasticity was -0.3. To demonstrate the capability of the model as a planning tool it was used to calculate the numbers of workers needed in a works bus catchment area to ensure break-even operation. It was shown, for example, that for an average direct distance to work of 5 kilometres about 165 low- or 350 high-car-availability workers were needed within 1 1/2 kilometres of a works bus stop, and the fare was 3-4 pence per direct journey kilometre. For a 20 kilometre distance the corresponding figures were 50, 65 and 2 pence per direct journey kilometre respectively.(a) (TRRL)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Transport and Road Research Laboratory

    Old Wokingham Road
    Crowthorne RG11 6AU, Berkshire,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Hale, DMJ
    • Jackson, R L
  • Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 14 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00322437
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Report/Paper Numbers: SR553 Monograph
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: May 21 1982 12:00AM