THE IMPACT OF STATISTICAL THEORY, HUMAN INTERVENTION, AND UNCERTAINTY ON CONSTRUCTION ESTIMATING AND OPERATIONS
This study examines the problem of uncertainty in the construction industry. Statistical methods are of less value than anticipated. Simulations, modeling and sensitivity analyses provide a range of risk and can promote understanding. Management of risk leads either to conservatism or provides opportunity and promotes advantage, innovation, and efficiency. Estimating must be subordinated to planning. An overemphasis on competitive procurements and a failure to deal wiith catastrophic loss are not always best for the country. Understanding and use of estimates are confused. The directive estimate, which is primarily planning, is preferred. It reduces uncertainty and attempts to shape the future. It is essential in large organizations, provides a scenario for action, and focuses effort. Estimates either attempt to look into the future (which is unproductive) or become a timed process of successive approximations and a continuing appreciation of a changing environment. No "truth" of "best figure" can be discovered or estimated. Statistical techniques involving simulations, regression analyses, models and Monte Carlo procedures provides only a range of probable outcomes. Their best use provides assistance in recognizing causal relationships and understanding processes. (Author)
University of California, BerkeleyDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Berkeley, CA USA 94720-1710
- Schremp, J E
- Publication Date: 1978-12
- Pagination: 312 p.
- TRT Terms: Analysis; Construction industry; Estimates; Hazards; Mathematical models; Measures of effectiveness; Monte Carlo method; Planning; Regression analysis; Risk assessment; Sensitivity; Simulation; Statistical analysis; Uncertainty; Utilization
- Uncontrolled Terms: Effectiveness; Models
- Subject Areas: Construction; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Research; Safety and Human Factors; I10: Economics and Administration;
- Accession Number: 00319435
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: Tech Rpt.
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jan 19 1981 12:00AM