Automated Vehicle Scenarios: Simulation of System-Level Travel Effects Using Agent-Based Demand and Supply Models in the San Francisco Bay Area

In much in the same way that the automobile disrupted horse and cart transportation in the 20th century, automated vehicles hold the potential to disrupt their current system of transportation in the 21st century. Experts predict that vehicles could be fully automated by as early as 2025 or as late as 2035. Methods are needed to help the public and private sector understand automated vehicle technologies and their system-level effects. First, the authors explore the effects of automated vehicles using the San Francisco Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s activity-based travel demand model (MTC-ABM).The simulation is unique in that it articulates the size and direction of change on travel for a wide range of automated vehicles scenarios. Second, the authors simulate the effects of the introduction of an automated taxi service on conventional personal vehicle and transit travel in the San Francisco Bay Area region and use new research on the costs of automated vehicles to represent plausible per mile automated taxi fares. The authors use an integrated model for the San Francisco Bay Area that includes the MTCABM combined with the agent-based MATSim model customized for the region. This model set uses baseline travel demand data from the region’s official activity-based travel model and dynamically assigns vehicles on road and transit networks by the time of day. Third, the authors use the MTC-ABM and the MATSim dynamic assignment model to simulate different “first” mile transit access services, including ride-hailing (Uber and Lyft) and ridesharing (Uber Pool/Lyft Line and Via) with and without automated vehicles. The results provide insight into the relative benefits of each service and automated vehicle technology and the potential market for these services.

  • Record URL:
  • Summary URL:
  • Record URL:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program.
  • Corporate Authors:

    National Center for Sustainable Transportation

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States 

    Institute of Transportation Studies

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States  95616

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    Technische Universität Berlin


    Resources Systems Group


    California Department of Transportation

    Division of Research, Innovation and System Information
    1727 30th Street, MS 83
    Sacramento, CA  United States  95816
  • Authors:
    • Rodier, Caroline
    • Jaller, Miguel
    • ORCID 0000-0003-4053-750X
    • Pourrahmani, Elham
    • Bischoff, Joschka
    • Freedman, Joel
    • Pahwa, Anmol
  • Publication Date: 2018-9


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 51p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01684753
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Created Date: Oct 5 2018 10:17AM