Probabilistic Assessment and Prediction of Shield Tunnel Performance

With more and more shield tunnels put into operation, how to objectively evaluate their structural performance to ensure serviceability has become a key issue for maintenance management. Currently shield tunnel performance is mostly defined by qualitative methods, which contain much subjectivity and ambiguity. Since aleatory uncertainties from the tunnel structures and surrounding environments would lead to random structural response, it is more appropriate to assess tunnel structural performance in a probabilistic manner. Convergence of tunnel lining is considered as one of important indicators for assessing the structural safety both in inspection and maintenance of shield tunnels. Therefore, this paper presents a probabilistic evolution model of tunnel performance based on statistical analysis of tunnel convergence. The evolution of tunnel performance is described by a normal random process. Through a case study on a metro shield tunnel in Shanghai, it is demonstrated that real-time observations of tunnel lining convergence can be fully utilized to continuously capture the evolution trend and dynamically update the probabilistic prediction of tunnel performance. The results are helpful for decision making on the maintenance of operating shield tunnels.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: pp 237-246
  • Monograph Title: Geo-Risk 2017: Reliability-Based Design and Code Developments

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01688128
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9780784480700
  • Files: TRIS, ASCE
  • Created Date: Oct 4 2018 4:13PM