LIGHT TRUCK FORECASTS

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995. (ERA citation 05:001252)

• Corporate Authors:

  Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  P. O. Box 2008
  Oak Ridge, TN  United States  37831
• Authors:
  • Liepins, G E
• Publication Date: 1979-9

Media Info

• Pagination: 52 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Light trucks; Mathematical models; Trucks
• Subject Areas: Energy; Highways; Motor Carriers; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00317827
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Contract Numbers: W-7405-ENG-26
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 22 1980 12:00AM