AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISKS PRESENTED BY CARBON FIBER COMPOSITES RELEASED FROM MOTOR VEHICLE FIRES

A risk assessment was conducted to estimate the potential losses through 1993 due to the usage of carbon fiber (CF) composites in U.S. motor vehicles, including automobiles and trucks. A methodology was developed to compute estimated dollar losses by county and equipment type, using a Poisson model for the incidence of equipment failures. This approach incorporated data on the geographic distribution of potentially vulnerable facilities, as well as the mean CF exposure levels at which various equipment would fail. The results were then statistically aggregated to produce a national risk profile for estimated annual losses in 1993. The expected loss was $5,567 per year (1977 dollars), and the likelihood of exceeding $500,000 in annual losses was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand. The sensitivity of these results to major input parameters was investigated, and it was found that under extreme worst-case assumptions the annual loss would increase to about $1.5 million.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Sponsored in Part by DOT.
• Corporate Authors:

  Little (Arthur D), Incorporated

  Acorn Park
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02140

  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  600 Independence Avenue, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20546
• Authors:
  • Rosenfield, D B
  • FIKSEL, J
  • Kalelkar, A
• Publication Date: 1980-3

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 87 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Carbon fibers; Composite materials; Cost estimating; Costs; Electronic equipment; Equipment; Estimates; Failure; Fiber composites; Fires; Hazards; Maximum likelihood method; Motor vehicles; Poisson distributions; Poisson ratio; Risk assessment; Traffic crashes
• Uncontrolled Terms: Failure modes
• Old TRIS Terms: Maximum likelihood estimates; Poissons ratio
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00317816
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: NASA-CR-159207, HS-029 996, DOT-TSC-RSPA-80-4
• Contract Numbers: NAS1-15380
• Files: HSL, TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 22 1984 12:00AM