PROBLEMS IN PREDICTING MARKET RESPONSE TO NEW TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY

This paper considers the unique problems and existing techniques for forecasting the markets and use patterns of new transportation technologies with respect to those used in typical urban demand modeling for facilities and for network loadings. Problems unique to technology demand forecasting discussed are: (a) determining the future characteristics of the technology, especially performance and cost relative to its competition; (b) determining the correct market segments for the technology and the expected maximum size of each segment; (c) estimating the impact of governmental support to accelerate commercialization and subsidize utilization; and (d) predicting the flexibility of society to change tripmaking patterns and adjust vehicle missions to accommodate vehicles with different performance characteristics. One major problem facing transportation forecasters is accounting for potential behavioral changes due to changing attitudes on energy and environmental constraints. The paper suggests that three success factors can be defined for a new technology. These are based on problems (a) and (b) above and are superior performance and cost relative to competition and large potential markets. These factors correlate highly with recent new transportation-technology successes and failures as the paper points out. Recent US efforts to predict electric-vehicle markets are reviewed relative to overcoming the problems and accounting for the success factors. (ERA citation 04:055166)

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • International conference on behavioral travel modeling, Eibsee, F.R. Germany, 2 July 1979.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Argonne National Laboratory

    9700 South Cass Avenue
    Argonne, IL  USA  60439

    Department of Energy

    1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  USA  20585
  • Authors:
    • Bernard III, M J
  • Publication Date: 1979-7

Media Info

  • Pagination: 33 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00317696
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Contract Numbers: W-31-109-ENG-38
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 22 1980 12:00AM