Integrating travel demand modeling and flood hazard risk analysis for evacuation and sheltering

In this paper, the risks of flooding hazards to the transportation system in urban Honolulu are assessed using a regional travel demand model (TDM). The approach serves to support understanding of evacuation and sheltering needs. Coastal and inland flooding hazard scenarios were modeled with four different hazard conditions. The inundation defined by the Maximum Envelope of High Water (MEOW) based on a hurricane that struck Hawaii and a tsunami run-up generated by historical earthquake events combined with a one-meter rise in sea level provided the worst possible coastal flooding scenario. A 500-year return period riverine flooding scenario was also included. The critical flooding hazard was transformed into a uniform 100 by 100meter geographic information system (GIS) based grid system. The Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization (OMPO) TransCAD model for 2035 provided the origin and destination trips for eleven trip types including motorized and non-motorized travel modes. The OMPO model includes personal travel, travel to the airport, commercial vehicle travel and visitor travel sub-models. Origin and destination trip matrices for Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) and highway and transit assignment details were extracted from the model. The O-D trips and road segment traffic details were transformed to the spatial grid system and overlaid on the flooding hazard layer. The spatial categorization of the flooding along with the trip and travel data from the TDM provided a robust method to quantify and visualize risks to travelers and the transportation system. The analysis shows that flooding hazard scenarios have serious risks in Honolulu. First, a large portion of the study area is susceptible to flooding, threatening the population, economy, and infrastructure. Second, in addition to areas susceptible to flooding, a larger percentage of origins, destinations, trips and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) are affected because of the need to travel through the at-risk areas. Third, commercial, transit and non-motorized trips are disproportionately affected compared to auto travel. This paper demonstrates how hazard data and risk models can be integrated with travel demand models for purposes of evacuation planning and sheltering as well as emergency planning and hazard mitigation and adaptation of the transportation system to climate change.


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  • Accession Number: 01682878
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 3 2018 3:16PM