The Effect of Shadow Evacuation in Megaregion Disasters: A Pilot Study
Transportation systems serve important roles during emergencies, in particular for evacuations. However, efficient travel during these life-and-death scenarios can be adversely impacted by external conditions, such as unnecessary and unneeded travel. This research sought to enhance the understanding of the effects of these conditions by analyzing shadow evacuations, and their impact on regional traffic operations in megaregions, more broadly. The research was based on simulations of a range of hurricane evacuation threat scenarios in the Gulf of Mexico building upon prior study using TRANSIMS. These assessments are also targeted at what many assume could be worst-case evacuation conditions and pushing the limits of current simulation modeling capability. Among the broader findings of this work was that shadow evacuation participation rates did not significantly impact the evacuation clearance times within mandatory evacuation areas of the megaregion as long as demand could be temporarily spread out. This finding does not, however, suggest that the shadow evacuations have no impact on evacuation processes. High rates of shadow evacuees can cause significant congestion if they are not able to exit critical routes before mandatory evacuees reach areas further away from the coast.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program. Supporting datasets available at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VYYZQW; https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/70490
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Corporate Authors:
Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
Baton Rouge, LA United StatesCooperative Mobility for Competitive Megaregions (CM2)
University of Texas at Austin
Austin, TX United States 78712Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
University Transportation Centers Program
Department of Transportation
Washington, DC United States 20590 -
Authors:
- Wolshon, Brian
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0000-0002-1703-2995
- Herrera, Nelida
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0000-0001-9090-7877
- Parr, Scott
- Zhang, Zhao
- Publication Date: 2018-10
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Edition: Technical Report
- Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 24p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Disasters and emergency operations; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Pilot studies; Simulation; Traffic congestion
- Identifier Terms: TRANSIMS (Computer model)
- Uncontrolled Terms: Megaregions
- Geographic Terms: Gulf of Mexico
- Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; Transportation (General);
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01684227
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: CM2-20
- Contract Numbers: 69A3551747135
- Files: UTC, NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
- Created Date: Oct 25 2018 5:13PM