STRIKE PROBABILITY PROGRAM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES

A tropical cyclone strike probability program has been developed at the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, Calif., based on a statistical analysis of 10 years of tropical cyclone forecast position errors in the western North Pacific Ocean. The program provides a method for determining the probability, up through 72 hours, that a tropical cyclone will come within a specific distance of geographic points of interest. This prediction capability will help authorities make responsive operational decisions associated with tropical cyclone evasion, evacuation, and preparedness. Presently, strike probabilities are available on an evaluation basis from the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center for locations in the Philippines, Okinawa, Taiwan, Guam, Hong Kong, and Japan. Possible future goals include testing this concept in the eastern and central Pacific, the western North Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico. The strike probability program will be enhanced later by a follow-on wind probability program now in operational checkout. This program will provide probability forecasts for tropical-cyclone-associated 30-knot and 50-knot winds occurring at specified locations, which will aid authorities in setting typhoon or severe storm readiness conditions and in ship routing and evasion.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Columbia Research Corporation

    2531 Jefferson Davis Highway
    Arlington, VA  United States  22202
  • Publication Date: 1980-3

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00311353
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 26 1980 12:00AM