DECISION THEORY. TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND THE EVALUATION PROCESS

Transportation studies typically include a cost-benefit analysis of alternative plans or options before making recommendations. Although it is recognised that there are many uncertainties about the future, little is done to deal with them other than a sensitivity analysis of the conclusions to variation in the values used in the cost-benefit analysis. Decision theory provides a formal mechanism for handling uncertainty by determining the probability of different demand states occurring, and, by explicitly introducing decision criteria, evaluating performance in each demand state. The article describes how techniques derived from decision theory can be usefully incorporated into the evaluation structure so as to improve the decision process. Two examples are provided to demonstrate the application of these procedures. The first discusses the planning strategies for inter-city travel in the Windsor-Guebec city corridor. Five alternatives are evaluated. The second example is based on a commuter rail transit line in the Lake-Shore corridor of Toronto. (TRRL)

  • Corporate Authors:

    University of British Columbia, Vancouver

    Faculty of Commerce
    Vancouver, British Columbia  Canada 
  • Authors:
    • Khan, A M
    • POULTON, M C
  • Publication Date: 1979

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00314728
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 27 1981 12:00AM