Time-series models for 10 international air travel markets are calibrated. These models are used to analyze traffic developments and to investigate whether conventional models of traffic demand can be used to forecast international air traffic. The models use simple specifications in which demand is represented by per capita income and intercountry trade flows and supply is represented by prevailing fares. Because of data limitations, no attempt is made to model demand and supply simultaneously. The results of the analysis are encouraging and indicate that, although the use of traffic demand modeling in analyzing international air traffic has many limitations, there is a good potential for developing this methodology into a useful forecasting aid. (Author)

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 5-14
  • Monograph Title: Aviation forecasting, planning, and operations
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00311190
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309029872
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jun 26 1980 12:00AM