AVIATION FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS AND DISCONTINUITIES: SURVEY RESULTS

Results of a survey of air transportation forecasters, planners, and researchers from four global regions and six industry sectors are reported. The survey results cover four major areas: the overall business environment in aviation, markets and prices, competition and regulation, and operations and technology. Wide variations in assumptions among the 120 respondents are noted in several important factors such as price levels, price elasticity, and the effect of changing government regulations on airline routes and operations. The most important assumptions identified by the respondents include changes in real air fares and real economic growth, the availability and price of jet fuel, government regulation, airport and airway capacity constraints, and inflation. The most important modifiers--defined as discontinuities (or surprises)--include the disruptive impact of a prolonged oil embargo by the oil-producing nations, a major recession, further large cuts in air-fare discounts, and automobile gasoline rationing. (Author)

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 1-4
  • Monograph Title: Aviation forecasting, planning, and operations
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00311189
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309029872
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jun 26 1980 12:00AM