Assessment of the Impact of Future External Factors on Road Revenues

This report examines the factors that affect future motor fuel tax revenue in Georgia. These factors influence vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and fuel economy, and can be demographic, environmental, technological or political. Numerous sources including metropolitan planning organization (MPO) and statewide transportation plans, academic and government reports, and futurist projections were surveyed to ascertain these factors. Afterward, the qualitative knowledge gained from this literature review was combined with databases such as the 2009 National Household Travel Survey and U.S. Census data to create an input-output model that projects Georgia’s motor fuel tax revenue in 2020 and 2030. Prior to projecting future revenue, the model compares estimated 2009 Georgia VMT and revenue values with established, actual VMT and revenue values to ensure the soundness of the model’s logic. In both the 2009 and projection models, the model segments Georgia’s fleet into three categories: personal, freight, and transit to more precisely specify vehicle fuel economies and calculate overall fleet fuel consumption. The model prompts the user for many inputs, allowing users to evaluate how multiple input scenarios can affect fuel tax revenue. The model’s output indicates that fuel economy increases, projected fuel costs, and the market penetration of electric vehicles could stifle absolute motor fuel tax receipts and drastically reduce per-capita fuel tax revenue.

  • Record URL:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Date on title page: April 2012.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Georgia Tech Research Corporation

    School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
    790 Atlantic Drive
    Atlanta, GA  United States  30332-0355

    Georgia Department of Transportation

    Office of Research, 15 Kennedy Drive
    Forest Park, GA  United States  30297-2534
  • Authors:
    • Meyer, Michael D
    • Cherry, Phillip
  • Publication Date: 2012-3


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Edition: Final Report
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 84p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01675150
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: GDOT-12-1014, Research Project No. 10-14
  • Contract Numbers: 0009929
  • Created Date: Jul 11 2018 2:29PM