For many years the rate at which tankers were scrapped or lost from the world fleet did not show significant variances from year to year. The tanker crisis of the 1970's changed all that. 1978 saw scrappage volumes far in excess of anything that had gone before. In 1979 there was a fall in the volume of scrapping, but scrappage rates were still well above their historical norm, and loss rates were higher than ever. These developments pose the question: were 1978 and 1979 isolated variances from the norm, or do they represent new norms for future scrappage and loss rates. In order to answer this question the Study examines trends in the 1970's in order to isolate the main factors which have determined the rates of scrappage and loss. Section I of the study is a statistical analysis aimed at identifying the type of tanker which is vulnerable to scrap or loss, and the degree of this vulnerability. Section 2 looks at the economics underlying the owner's decision to scrap, and how these economics have changed, relating scrap prices, trading costs and potential revenues. Using the evidence generated in these two sections the study goes on in Section 3 to apply the main scrapping and loss criteria to the present fleet. Projections are made of future trends in the size and composition of the fleet, taking into account possible market conditions and other economic factors. The Study provides an invaluable guide to the factors which must be monitored if reliable forecasts of the future supply of tankers are to be prepared, and gives useful examples of how the required rate of tanker replacement can be estimated.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Drewry (HP) (Shipping Consultants) Limited

    Research Division, 24 Brook Street
    London W1Y 2LL,   England 
  • Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

  • Pagination: n.p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00316223
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Study No. 84
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 8 1980 12:00AM