THE WORLD BUSINESS CYCLE, ENERGY AND THE FUTURE

The paper provides a general background discussion of prospects for world output and trade in the 1980's as follows: Section (1) examines the underlying trends of output and trade and provides several explanations for the general slowdown in the world economy. Section (2) discusses energy trends; the impact rising oil prices and diminishing energy supplies will have on world trade and shipping demand. Section (3) describes the short-run behavior of the world economy and how well one can explain year by year fluctuations in output and trade. The author concludes with a forecast of trade developments in the 1980's and how they are likely to affect merchant shipping. Highlighting the forecast are a number of charts illustrating world output, trade, petroleum production, energy consumption and shipping demand.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Paper presented at Commodities on Bulk Shipping in the 80's, a Lloyd's of London Press Conference, the London Press Center, 13/14 December 1979.
• Corporate Authors:

  Lloyd's of London Press Limited

  Sheepen Road
  Colchester, Essex CO3 3LP,   England 
• Authors:
  • Budd, A
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Pagination: 9 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Economic analysis; Economic forecasting; Economics; Energy resources; International trade; Petroleum industry; Shipping; Trade; Trend (Statistics)
• Uncontrolled Terms: Energy sources
• Old TRIS Terms: Petroleum economics; Shipping economics; Shipping trends; Trade development; Trade forecasts
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Marine Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00316332
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: Conf Paper
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 8 1980 12:00AM