Migration Probability Matrix for Bridge Element Deterioration Models

Transportation agencies are required in 23 USC 119(e) to develop Transportation Asset Management Plans featuring life-cycle cost analysis for bridges. Final rules in 23 CFR 515.17 elaborates that this analysis and related bridge management systems must contain deterioration models. Element-level bridge inspection data suitable for deterioration models have been collected by most state department of transportation (DOTs) since the mid-1990s, but in 2013 AASHTO significantly modified the inspection process. FHWA has proposed adding the modified inspection language to the National Bridge Inventory in compliance with element inspection requirements in 23 USC 144(b). This presents a serious problem for all DOTs because none yet have sufficient element inspection data under the 2013 AASHTO manual to support deterioration modeling. Research completed in 2016 for the Florida DOT suggests one readily implementable solution to this problem. A migration probability matrix was developed to encapsulate the differences in definitions between Florida’s bridge element inspection data gathered under AASHTO’s 1998 Guide to Commonly Recognized Structural Elements, and the new 2016 Florida DOT inspection manual, which is based on the 2013 AASHTO Manual for Bridge Element Inspection. Deterioration models previously developed using the older data can be easily multiplied by this migration probability matrix to develop reasonable models that are compatible with inspection data gathered under the new manual. Ultimately this migration matrix can be validated and improved once sufficient element inspection data are gathered under the new manual.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 137-152
  • Monograph Title: Eleventh International Bridge and Structures Management Conference
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01672049
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jun 14 2018 9:28AM