This research analyzes the ship collision problem in and around United States ports and develops a methodology to allow cost effective assessment of alternatives to reduce ship collisions. By analytical and statistical means, a mathematical model is developed to predict ship collisions in ports and to evaluate the parameters for Pacific Coast ports. The Collision Prediction Model is based on ship factors, port factors and exposure criteria. The model provides for including the effectiveness of various collision reduction methods through the use of multiplicative factors. Examples of benefit cost analyses are presented based on Net Present Value, forecasts of the Collision Prediction Model and the effectiveness of various collision reduction methods. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to demonstrate the ability of the proposed methods to identify critical ranges for important parameters. The methods described provide decision makers with an analytical aid for making decisions. Collision trends and priorities for alleviating the ship collision problem can be established and resources allocated appropriately. (Author)

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Doctoral thesis.
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of California, Los Angeles

    School of Architecture and Urban Planning
    Los Angeles, CA  United States  90024

    United States Coast Guard

    2100 Second Street, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20593
  • Authors:
    • Morgan, R R
    • O'Neill, R R
  • Publication Date: 1979-5

Media Info

  • Pagination: 228 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00313996
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: UCLA-ENG-7939 Final Rpt., USCG-M-5-79
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-CG-83886-1B
  • Files: NTIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 22 1980 12:00AM