AN ANALYSIS OF THE AUTOMOBILE MARKET: MODELING THE LONG-RUN DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILES. VOLUME II - SIMULATION ANALYSIS USING THE WHARTON EFA AUTOMOBILE DEMAND MODEL

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired stock" and its composition by size-class are related to numerous economic and demographic variables using cross-section data. Among them is a new "capitalized cost per mile" measure, which expresses all costs over time relative to miles driven, discounted back to the present. New registrations, total and by class, and scrappage are found to be strongly related to "desired stock" relative to actual stock, with other influences operating as "speed of adjustment" factors. Fuel efficiency is analyzed in detail, relating mpg by class to physical vehicle characteristics and technological developments. Purchase prices and options expenditures are analyzed and all cost measures distinguished by foreign vs domestic origin as well as by size-class. Volume I summarizes and describes the study, and contains a forecast through 2000. Volume II contains extensive simulation analysis, with public policy implications. Volume III contains data and methodology appendices.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • See also Volume 1 dated Dec 79, PB80-143316 and Volume 3, PB80-166580.
• Corporate Authors:

  Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates, Inc

  3624 Market Street
  Philadelphia, PA  United States  19104

  Transportation Systems Center

  55 Broadway, Kendall Square
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02142

  National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

  Office of Research and Development, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Schink, G R
  • Loxley, C J
• Publication Date: 1979-12

Media Info

• Pagination: 353 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Costs; Demand; Econometric models; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Fuel consumption; Inventory control; Market research; Policy; Simulation; Traffic forecasting; Trend (Statistics)
• Old TRIS Terms: Capitalized costs
• Subject Areas: Energy; Finance; Freight Transportation; Highways; Policy; Railroads; Society; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00313954
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: DOT-TSC-NHTSA-79-492Final Rpt.
• Contract Numbers: DOT-TSC-1072
• Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Jul 22 1980 12:00AM