External factors likely to affect future travel patterns
Strategic Transport models are often used to undertake long term demand forecasts for transport infrastructure. In normal modelling practice, we assume that all parameters in the model will be held constant into the future. However, we know that change will occur in demographics, land use, education, shopping, intelligent transport systems and other technologies which may have a material impact on our long term demand forecasts. We don’t know how much these external influences will change our forecasts, but it is possible to use judgement of a group of experts to estimate which parameters are likely to increase or decrease and by how much. During the Perth & Peel @3.5m Transport Plan (2014-2016), workshops were held with local urban transport and planning experts to attempt to quantify how these changes might affect our long term forecasts. This paper outlines the external influences that are likely to have a noticeable impact on urban travel and suggests adjusted values for the relevant travel demand inputs and functions.
- Record URL:
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Authors:
- Piotrowski, S
- Wildermuth, H
- Conference:
- Publication Date: 2017-8
Language
- English
Media Info
- Pagination: 16p
- Monograph Title: AITPM National Traffic and Transport Conference, 15-18 August 2017, Melbourne
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Behavior; Demographics; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Population; Strategic planning; Travel; Travel behavior
- Uncontrolled Terms: Policy and planning
- Geographic Terms: Australia; Western Australia
- ATRI Terms: Demography; Forecast; Modelling; Strategic planning; Travel behaviour
- ITRD Terms: 132: Forecast
- Subject Areas: Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01664036
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: ARRB
- Files: ITRD, ATRI
- Created Date: Mar 22 2018 12:31PM